Euro 2024 - Group F
⚽ The final group preview - Group F. Portugal are heavy favourites, but which of the other three will progress? 📊
Football4Cast’s Group Breakdown - F
Like Group E, this group will start with a heavy favourite and a group of three other teams who will all fancy their chances of taking points from each other should they perform to their best, even Georgia, the lowest ranked team going into the tournament at 75 in the world. Let’s have a look at what the data says about each of their chances …
The above shows analysis of Group F according to the Football4Cast Algorithm - a machine learning program that takes into account our proprietary rankings algorithm along with a range of other features. These will be updated as the tournament progresses so check back to see how things change.
Portugal
Portugal, winners in 2016, come into this tournament with arguably their greatest ever squad of players (definitely since the time of Figo and Rui Costa). They seem to have a wealth of options in all areas and even have the luxury of being able to rest the great Cristiano Ronaldo if they need to. This also makes coach Roberto Martinez’s team even more difficult to play against, as opponents never know exactly who they will come up against.
The Portuguese breezed through their qualification group, winning all 10 games and the data gives them a 92% chance of making it through the group stage, with a 61% chance of doing so as group winners. They haven’t always made easy work of groups in the past but have made at least the quarter finals of every Euros since 1996 so will be feeling confident.
Veterans Ronaldo and defensive stalwart Pepe bely their years and are more than ably assisted by younger players like Nuno Mendes, Goncalo Ramos and Rafael Leao. They will be hoping that they can use the group stage as a platform for their players to ease themselves into the tournament and then build up a charge from there.
Our group previews will continue to drop regularly in the run up to the tournament and once Euro 2024 begins, updates and regular refreshes to the data dashboards will occur. Subscribe to make sure you don’t miss anything.
Czech Republic
Czech Republic have reached the tournament finals on every occasion since becoming an independent nation, even reaching the final on their first attempt at Euro 96, being beaten by Germany with the first ever golden goal winner in a major tournament.
However, they don’t currently have the same quality of overall squad to draw upon, as evidenced in qualifying where they struggled at times before ultimately finishing second in their group behind Albania.
They also have a new coach in Ivan Hasek, whose first competitive game in charge will be their tournament opener against Portugal after the previous coach stood down after qualifying.
Despite this, the Czechs do still have some talented players such as Tomas Soucek and Patrik Schick in their team and, despite the unknowns, the data still suggests they have a 68% chance of progression (68%), most likely in second place (34%).
Turkey
Turkey will feel confident after topping a qualification group including Croatia and Wales, although expectations may be tempered somewhat after recent friendly defeats to Hungary and Austria, with the latter a 6-1 demolition! This may be why our algorithm suggests they have a slightly lower chance than the Czechs of getting through the group stage (63%), with a 27% chance if this being in second.
Coach Vincenzo Montella (who only took charge in September) has shown that he is willing to introduce young players into the fold to find a mix of youth and experience that he hopes will work best for his team. This is why we will likely see Real Madrid teenager Arda Guler line up alongside talisman Hakan Calhanoglu as a creative force.
After reaching the semi-finals in 2008, Turkey didn’t qualify for 2012 and had group stage exits in 2016 and 2020, so progression to the last 16 will be an improvement. They will hope they get off to a good start against Georgia.
Georgia
Georgia are the only debutants at this edition of the Euros, qualifying due to through the UEFA Nations League play-off route that was indeed designed to give other nations a chance for a taste at the big time. This does not mean that they will be complete pushovers though, as shown with draws with Scotland and Norway in qualifying.
The team, led by Frenchman (and former World Cup finalist) Willy Sagnol, will be delighted to be at the tournament but won’t just want to make up the numbers. They like to play on the counter attack and will rely on the pace and skill of star player, Napoli’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, to provide the spark when opportunities arise.
Our data shows that they have a 40% chance of qualifying to the next stage (most likely in third place at 17%) and being an unknown quantity on the big stage may help with this. They will hope to have some points in the bag before their final group game with Portugal comes round.
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