Newcastle United v Chelsea
Who will come out on top in the latest contest with huge ramifications for Champions League qualification?
Newcastle United v Chelsea
Sunday 11th May - 12:00
Prediction
Preview
The Champions League race is where all of the interest remains and this is a game that will have huge ramifications whatever happens. Chelsea seem to have hit some winning form just at the right time whereas Newcastle have begun to falter a little, dropping points in two of their last three games. They could get back on the front foot with a victory here though.
Following on from their Carabao Cup victory Newcastle were flying until they came up against fellow European contenders Aston Villa where they were hammered 4-1. They picked up some momentum with a 3-0 victory over Ipswich but then stalled again in drawing 1-1 with Brighton last weekend. In the process they have dropped from 3rd to 4th, level on points with Chelsea and with Nottingham Forest and Villa right behind them.
Eddie Howe’s team certainly have the capability of scoring goals with Alexander Isak, Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy all very attacking players. They just don’t seem to have been working as effectively together in the last few games and need to get their spark back.
Set pieces may be a place where they could look to prosper also as defenders Fabian Schar and Dan Burn are both capable of getting on the end of dangerous balls. While their 11 set piece goals this season may not be the best in the league, they are dangerous enough from these to worry Chelsea defensively if given the opportunity.
Chelsea went through a bit of a slump in late February and early March but have now won four out of their last six and drawn the other two. This has put them back into the driving seat for a Champions League spot, perhaps also bolstered by their positive run of form in the Europa Conference League.
Cole Palmer finally ended his run of not scoring with a late penalty against Liverpool and also put in a fine performance to show that he won’t let pressure get to him. Enzo Fernandez has also looked impressive recently having been given more of a license to roam forward and support attacks.
The 41 goals that Chelsea have conceded so far this season is the third least in the league behind only Liverpool and Arsenal and they will need to be similarly solid if they are to stop Newcastle here. One question may be whether they will have had enough rest after playing in Europe on Thursday but so far Enzo Maresca has managed to rotate well. He will be hoping for more of the same in this fixture.
Verdict:
Leaning Towards Newcastle
Our algorithm still leans towards the home team here (44% chance of victory) which would make sense as they will feel like they will really need the win to get them back on track. They will certainly be boosted by their supporters who will be desperate to get back to Europe’s top table.
Chelsea will not be an easy nut to crack though and this will probably be a tight game. This is reflected in the 29% chance of victory that they are given.
A few more stats ahead of the match…
Newcastle United
League Position: 4th
Top Goalscorer: Isak (23)
Top Assists: Murphy (10)
xG per match: 1.53
Actual goals scored per match: 1.89
xG against per match: 1.45
Actual goals conceded per match: 1.29
Fouls committed: 10.37
Fouls against: 12.31
Most booked: Burn, Joelinton (10)
Last 5 League Results:
Newcastle 4-1 Manchester United
Goal scorers: Tonali, Barnes (2), Guimaraes
Assists: Joelinton, Murphy, Isak
Bookings: None
Newcastle 5-0 Crystal Palace
Goal scorers: Murphy, Guehi (og), Barnes, Schar, Isak
Assists: Tonali, Joelinton, Murphy, Trippier
Bookings: Burn, Guimaraes
Aston Villa 4-1 Newcastle
Goal scorers: Schar
Assists: Barnes
Bookings: Schar, Guimaraes, Joelinton
Newcastle 3-0 Ipswich
Goal scorers: Isak, Burn, Osula
Assists: Trippier (2), Murphy
Bookings: Burn
Brighton 1-1 Newcastle
Goal scorers: Isak
Assists: None
Bookings: Willock
Chelsea
League Position: 5th
Top Goalscorer: Palmer (15)
Top Assists: Palmer (8)
xG per match: 1.82
Actual goals scored per match: 1.77
xG against per match: 1.26
Actual goals conceded per match: 1.17
Fouls committed: 11.51
Fouls against: 12.14
Most booked: Caicedo, Cucurella (10)
Last 5 League Results:
Brentford 0-0 Chelsea
Goal scorers: None
Assists: None
Bookings: Gusto, Adarabioyo, Fernandez
Chelsea 2-2 Ipswich
Goal scorers: Tuanzebe (og), Sancho
Assists: Palmer
Bookings: Palmer, Jackson
Fulham 1-2 Chelsea
Goal scorers: George, Neto
Assists: Fernandez
Bookings: Cucurella, Colwill, Caicedo
Chelsea 1-0 Everton
Goal scorers: Jackson
Assists: Fernandez
Bookings: None
Chelsea 3-1 Liverpool
Goal scorers: Fernandez, Quansah (og), Palmer
Assists: Neto, Caicedo
Bookings: Chalobah, Sancho
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