Euro 2024 - Tournament Preview
⚽ Football4Cast will be here throughout the tournament using the algorithm to support all of your prediction needs, identify tips and uncover the stories behind the data 📊
Here we go! Domestic competition has now finished and the Euros are just around the corner. Time to get swatting up on which Hungarian attackers Scotland should be wary of, which of the plethora of Portuguese and French attackers will actually start, and which ‘...shvili’ will be the next Georgian big thing to impress your mates with in the pub.
Here at Football4Cast we will be providing you with regular updates throughout the tournament on what the data says and the stories that lie behind this.
Before it all kicks off though, we will be taking a look at the overall chances of the teams before taking a deep dive into the data of each group and looking at what we feel the most likely outcomes will be.
Tournament Winners
Below shows the favourites according to the Football4Cast Algorithm - a machine learning program that takes into account our proprietary rankings algorithm along with a range of other features. All the below - and more - can be found on our data pages available on Substack below …
Most bookies currently have England as slight favourites to be crowned the winners on July 14th but our algorithm gives the nod to France. The edge is not a large one but enough to suggest they are an outright favourite (at 13.6% we give them just over 3% over next most likely winners Spain).
A look at the French squad would give some insight into why this may be - there is quality in every area with strong substitute options meaning that coach Didier Deschamps will also have plenty of selection quandaries. The Algo has also taken into account performance in recent tournaments with only a shock Round of 16 knockout on penalties to the Swiss at Euro 2020 being the anomaly in a series that has seen them reach every other major final since Euro 2016 (once on the winning side and twice as losers but close in each instance). This experience and quality means that anyone hoping to oust them from the tournament will need to be at their very best.
Following France, there are 7 other teams that the data suggests are within 2% of each other in terms of likelihood of victory from Spain at 10.2% to the Netherlands at 8.3%. The other five are Belgium, Portugal, Italy, England and hosts Germany in that order.
All have form of strong performances in the past and all have squads with the talent to perform under pressure. All also have their weaknesses that will need to be addressed and, as always, form and momentum will have a lot to say once the tournament itself has started.
Betting - Where Does the Value Lie?
Below shows a comparison to the bookies favourites for the tournament to the Football4Cast Algorithm. Also shown is the ‘Value Threshold’ - a new way of looking at betting that aims to identify the threshold at which the risk becomes ‘worth it’ - i.e the pay out is high enough. Any odds that we have found that meet this criteria have been colour coded green, but these clearly may change over time, so you should always have one eye on the Value Threshold as well.
In terms of who to actually back, the value threshold compared to the best current odds would suggest that Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands hold the most value in terms of the chances that our algorithm gives them to win. Obviously this can never be an exact science though as the draw will always throw up close contests.
Croatia, Austria and Hungary would look to be where the value lies for a dark horse bet in terms of the chances given by the algorithm. All are in tough groups though so it all very much depends on how the tournament brackets pans out.
Group Qualifying
With respect to just qualifying from their group, there could perhaps be more value in backing some of the lesser fancied teams. A look at the value threshold compared to the best odds available would suggest that the Czech Republic, Austria and Slovenia may be sensible choices as teams to back to get through to the knockout phase.
Who Else Could Surprise?
A look at the breakdown of where the algorithm shows where teams are most likely to exit the tournament backs up the previous suggestions that Croatia, Austria and Hungary could go far if things go their way. The figures are interesting here as it reflects the quality of some of the groups in that some teams have more chance of getting through their group but others with less chance have a higher probability of going further if they manage to do so.
Other countries that stand out are Denmark, who have a 1 in 3 chance of reaching the quarter final and a 15% chance of reaching the semi-final (something they have done twice previously, including at the most recent Euros), Switzerland also with a 1 in 3 chance of reaching the quarter finals (which they did last time) and a 14% chance of the semis, and Ukraine, with a relatively low 24% of exiting at the group stage and an almost 28% chance of making it to the quarters. If they can get momentum on their side, it could be a real fairytale story given current circumstances.
Conclusion
So there you have it! A look at what the numbers say for overall chances before a ball has even been kicked. We all know that there is always much more to it than that though …
Over the next few days we will be looking in more detail at each group and assessing the chances of each team.
During the tournament, we will also be providing daily updates on what has been happening and looking at predictions for each match.
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