Aston Villa v Fulham
Can Villa maintain their push for the Champions League despite losing to Manchester City last time out?
Aston Villa v Fulham
Saturday 3rd May - 12:30
Prediction
Preview
They may be just outside the Champions League positions at the moment, but Villa’s recent form shows that they are more than capable of finding their way back into Europe’s top competition for the second season running. They will be well worth their place if they do after having performed admirably this year.
The Villains were unlucky to lose to Manchester City last time out, only succumbing to a 94th minute Matheus Nunes goal, but laid their intentions bare in their previous league match by hammering fellow Top 4 competitors Newcastle 4-1. This was part of a run of five league victories on the bounce and their run in fixtures aren’t the worst either. There is still hope for them yet.
Much will depend on the continued form of their attackers. Ollie Watkins has refound his scoring touch and he has been assisted ably by a mixture of players including Marcus Rashford, Marco Asensio, Donyell Malen, Morgan Rogers and Ian Maatsen. Their expected goals per game is actually one of the lowest in the division but they have comfortably outscored this, showing that they can take difficult chances when needed. If they continue to be dangerous they will really put the pressure on those above them.
Fulham have had a good season as well and, although they may be just out of the running for Champions League places themselves, they could still have a big say in who gets there in playing Villa today and Manchester City in the final game. Their recent form is patchy but games have been close and they will not be an easy team to beat.
Marco Silva’s team haven’t put together more than two wins in a row all season but have played well enough to get themselves into a top 10 berth. Both Raul Jimenez and Rodrigo Muniz have been in the goals (without either fully cementing their starting berth) and attacking fullback Antonee Robinson has been the provider in chief.
Where they have been strong is in defence. Their expected goals against of 41.73 is the third best in the division, behind only Liverpool and Arsenal, and although they have conceded a few more goals than this, it shows that they don’t give up good chances too easily. Joachim Andersen was a shrewd signing from Crystal Palace and Calvin Bassey is an able partner. Villa’s attackers should have to work hard to break through.
Verdict:
Backing Aston Villa
Our algorithm shows that the sensible option here would be to back the home team, giving them a 56% likelihood of victory. Their opponents are given a 19% chance.
Whilst there is a scenario that an 8th place league finish would allow Fulham to play in Europe next year, Villa have more to play for here and the fact that they are at home should drive them on.
A few more stats ahead of the match…
Aston Villa
League Position: 7th
Top Goalscorer: Watkins (15)
Top Assists: Rogers (8)
xG per match: 1.47
Actual goals scored per match: 1.59
xG against per match: 1.43
Actual goals conceded per match: 1.44
Fouls committed: 10.91
Fouls against: 13.15
Most booked: Rogers (9)
Last 5 League Results:
Brighton 0-3 Aston Villa
Goal scorers: Rashford, Asensio, Malen
Assists: Rogers (2), Asensio
Bookings: Martinez, Disasi, Watkins
Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Goal scorers: Rogers, Malen
Assists: Maatsen, Tielemans
Bookings: Martinez, Asensio
Southampton 0-3 Aston Villa
Goal scorers: Watkins, Malen, McGinn
Assists: Tielemans, Rogers
Bookings: McGinn
Aston Villa 4-1 Newcastle
Goal scorers: Watkins, Maatsen, Burn (og), Onana
Assists: Tielemans, Rogers, Watkins
Bookings: Ramsey
Manchester City 2-1 Aston Villa
Goal scorers: Rashford
Bookings: Digne, Rogers, Watkins
Fulham
League Position: 8th
Top Goalscorer: Jimenez (10)
Top Assists: Robinson (10)
xG per match: 1.55
Actual goals scored per match: 1.47
xG against per match: 1.34
Actual goals conceded per match: 1.35
Fouls committed: 11.21
Fouls against: 9.97
Most booked: Lukic (12)
Last 5 League Results:
Arsenal 2-1 Fulham
Goal scorers: Muniz
Assists: Sessegnon
Bookings: Andersen, Lukic, Pereira
Fulham 3-2 Liverpool
Goal scorers: Sessegnon, Iwobi, Muniz
Assists: Iwobi
Bookings: Leno, Lukic, Smith Rowe
Bournemouth 1-0 Fulham
Goal scorers: None
Assists: None
Bookings: Robinson, Cairney
Fulham 1-2 Chelsea
Goal scorers: Iwobi
Assists: Sessegnon
Bookings: Bassey
Southampton 1-2 Fulham
Goal scorers: Smith Rowe, Sessegnon
Assists: Iwobi, Traore
Bookings: Jimenez
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