Aston Villa v Arsenal
Villa did the double over the Gunners last year, including a win that effectively ended the London team’s title charge. Will they manage another victory here or will Arsenal continue a perfect start?
Prediction
Preview
Both of these teams achieved Champions League qualification last season, Arsenal coming agonisingly close to ending Man City’s era of dominance once again and Villa outperforming even their own wildest expectations to finish 4th. Both also started this season very well with wins in their opening fixtures last weekend. They will both be hoping for a good performance here to maintain momentum.
Villa lost a couple of key players over the summer in Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby but have covered this by bringing in Amadeus Onana from Everton (who got off to a great start with a goal on his debut) and the exciting Samuel Iling-Junior from Juventus (although he may yet go out on loan to get more experience). Ian Maatsen has also arrived from Chelsea who can both defend and provide attacking threat, and more opportunities should be afforded to the likes of Leon Bailey and Morgan Rogers.
Unai Emery will be acutely aware of the strain that balancing a European campaign and a league push can have on a squad and it will be interesting to see how Villa cope with this.
Arsenal had the best defence in the league last year and have strengthened this further by making David Raga’s move from Brentford permanent and signing Ricardo Califiori from Bologna off the back of a tremendous Euros campaign, to provide competition at centre-back and, more likely, to cover in the slightly problematic left-back position. Emile Smith-Rowe to Fulham was the biggest departure but is a move that made sense for both player and club at a key point in his career.
Arsenal have been incredibly close to ending City’s winning run in both of the last two seasons and will be desperate to finally get their hands on the trophy this year. They have the squad to do it but know that they will need to be almost perfect. This game could lay down a marker for their intentions.
Verdict
Last week our algorithm correctly predicted that Man City would get off to a winning start despite (another) new dawn at Chelsea. This week we are leaning towards Arsenal with the algorithm giving them a 46% chance of victory (both Villa and the draw are at 27% each).
The Gunners looked comfortable without being incredible against Wolves and will want to roll on. Their defence remains incredibly strong which is a great foundation to build from.
It must be considered that this may be the worst time in the season to face Villa though as they have not yet started European competition. Villa also did the double over Arsenal last season (including a win that effectively cost the Londoners the title) so will feel confident about their chances.
However, we still fancy Arsenal to get the job done here.
Other Possible Bets
My other bets both came in last week with Haaland (inevitably) scoring and Caicedo being booked (although he made me wait). For this game I will be looking for some similar value.
Both Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka scored and assisted last week and both had 5 shots at goal. Three of Saka’s were on target and he looked lively throughout. You can get odds around Evens for home to score or assist again here which seems tempting (He is also around 2/1 to score anytime if you fancy it).
John McGinn is always a live wire and last week conceded two fouls and won three. You can get around 8/5 for him to have over 1.5 for both fouls conceded and won here, and around 11/4 for him to be carded if you fancy it.
A few more stats ahead of the match…
Aston Villa
2023/24 Position: 4th
Top Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins (19)
Top Assists: Ollie Watkins (13)
xG per match: 1.46
Actual goals scored per match: 2
xG against per match: 1.38
Actual goals conceded per match: 1.61
Fouls committed: 10.92
Fouls against: 12.68
Most booked (Current players): John McGinn (11)
2024/25 Results:
West Ham 1-2 Aston Villa
Goal scorers: Onana, Duran
Assists: Tielemans, Ramsey
Bookings: Bailey
Arsenal
2023/24 Position: 2nd
Top Goalscorer: Bukayo Saka (16)
Top Assists: Martin Odegaard (10)
xG per match: 1.83
Actual goals scored per match: 2.39
xG against per match: 0.92
Actual goals conceded per match: 0.76
Fouls committed: 10.24
Fouls against: 10.58
Most booked: Kai Havertz (11)
2024/25 Results:
Arsenal 2-0 Wolves
Goalscorers: Havertz, Saka
Assists: Saka, Havertz
Bookings: Saka
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